High Stakes

Badminton Horse Trials 2006
Originally uploaded by paulwoolrich.

As I write this the Kentucky Derby is just an hour or so from post time. I'm not a horse racing fan, but I've long been fascinated by the incredibly high stakes that are decided by a two minute race. The investment in a thoroughbred horse with the potential to win the Triple Crown is tremendous. The breeding, the training, the physical conditioning all build up to one brief burst of energy in a tiny slice of time. So many things can go wrong in that two minute race, and often do.

One wonders what the horse knows. The winner gets a pretty good lifetime gig at the breeding ranch. Seems to me that's an even better deal than a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court. I'll bet that fourth place finisher wishes it had laid off that extra bag of oats over Easter.

This reflection was prompted by the horse race, but it isn't really about the Derby or even about horses. It is about how everything can change in a flash. A single decision or unexpected event can have lifelong implications.

It's true in our personal lives. Sometimes we make choices that result in either dire conequences or extremely positive ones. We bemoan the choices that don't work out and wonder how life would be different had we zigged instead of zagged. What if we had gone another road?

There are some high stakes playing out in our nation right now. We're enmeshed in a deadly conflict in Iraq. It was a choice made with inadequate information and the consequences have been horrific. Now the saber is rattling again and Iran is in view. We have a political party in power that has lost the confidence of the people, and an opposing political party that seems to have no message and no viable messenger. But the issues are evident and everything comes down to a moment of decision--one sliver of time when somebody decides go or no go. Once that starting gate is open the race is on and it's two minutes and done.

With horse racing it's only money plus a little ego and reputation at risk. With Iran or Iraq or North Korea it's about life and death, with a generous portion of economic ruin and global disdain mixed in.

Oddsmakers don't "make book" on war--at least I hope not. But these enormous stakes are breathtaking and terrifying. The announcer at the Derby declares, "And they're off and running..." Oh if only the announcer in Washington could proclaim, "And they're off and run...wait a minute--it looks like they're still talking, still thinking, still negotiating. This is unbelievable! Ladies and gentleman, please return to your seats. The stakes are high. This may take a while."

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